Oil Crisis
The Oil Crisis is a proxy conflict and economic crisis in The New Order: Last Days of Europe that occurs in 1971.
Around this time, several civil wars will break out in Middle Eastern countries, causing the operations of the Italian ENI company to be disrupted and causing massive price fluctuations in the value of oil, leading to the global oil market being disrupted and causing great turmoil economically and politically abroad. Arabia itself sees the emergence of pan-Arab socialist and hardline-Islamic movements that play host to support from nations abroad in addition to national democratic movements focused on taking back oil assets previously controlled by the Italian Empire.
Context
In retrospect, it is ironic that the place known as the "cradle of civilization" would be the place that would nearly send it to its grave.
First by the Ottomans, then by the French and British, and now by the Italians-- the Middle East long had been a place of changing masters. The birthplace of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, the peninsula reached its peak in the Islamic Golden Age, before falling with the arrival of the Mongol empire in 1258. After this, the Middle East would play host to a rotating series of masters-- first the Timurids, then the Ottomans, The collapse of Ottoman rule in 1916 during the Arab Revolt was heralded with Franco-British promises of a united Arab state. Such an idea was never realized, as the French and British drew lines of occupation, taking the Levant and the Red Sea coast into a stranglehold.
The arrival of Italian soldiers into Jerusalem in 1943 during the North Africa Campaign and the Syrian Revolt against French occupation seemed to herald an era of Arab independence. Instead, as Italian influence quickly infiltrated the Golden Square government in Iraq, extended protectorates over Yemen and Oman, seized the Gulf, and the old masters in Turkey, backed by Axis promises, crept south into newly-independent Syria and Iraq, it became clear that Arabia was simply changing hands.
Build-Up
A number of events influence the Oil Wars. The Second Italo-Turkish War in 1963, for instance, and the ultimate dissolution of the Governate of the Levant, was the first symptom of instability in the Middle East. The Italian Empire, the main force in the region, would see its grasp on the empire continually undermined, especially in the aftermath of the death of Farouk I. The solution to the political instability in Egypt promoted two major regional forces: The Muslim Brotherhood, an organization of islamists looking to form a new caliphate and the Free Officers' Organization, a pan-Arabic clique of army officers.
With regard to in-game effects, the dissolution of the Levant will be the deciding factor in whether or not the United Arab Republic will form at full strength, since without the Negev desert, there is no land bridge between Egypt and the rest of the peninsula. In the event that Turkey wins the Second Italo-Turkish War, a hint of the coming crisis will be seen as Lebanon descends into a civil war between pan-Arabists and the Turkish-backed government.
While pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism already existed in certain capacities, it was following the Egyptian instability that the two movements would begin to gain popular and common support. Both organizations would spread their reach in the coming years to other places in the Middle East and begin associating with other organizations. Iraq was particularly struck by the emergence of these ideologies-- pan-Arab and pan-Islamic rhetoric would create an intense political climate within the government. It was in Yemen, however, where the rift between Italian control and pan-Arabic aspiration would clash. North Yemen, once a stronghold of the Mutawakkilites, would become increasingly attracted to Pan-Arabism as an ideology. Italian protection would mostly manage to keep this dissatisfaction under control, but the situation would ultimately become untenable as the state of the Italian Empire would continue to worsen, particularly with the collapse of Italian East Africa, which not only consumed a significant portion of the Empire's resources for the time, but also required the redirection of peacekeeping forces from Yemen.
Conflict
Yemeni Civil War
Main article: Yemeni Civil War
Midway through 1971, agitation in Yemen between the mostly pan-Arabic north half around Sana'a and the mostly Mutawakkilite-supporting southern half around Aden reached a head. Rallying around Abdullah Al-Sallal, a respected officer and son of a butcher, the city of Sana'a would erupt into violence. Shortly thereafter, insurgent cells across most of North Yemen would rise up and overwhelm local garrisons loyal to Imam Ahmad bin Yahya and declare the Yemeni Arab Democratic Republic. Italian peacekeepers withdrew to the port of Aden.
Initially, the foreign press glossed over the issue, as instability in the Middle East was and remains rather common. Regardless, the pan-Arab rebels enjoyed support from the Greater German Reich, who looked at the opportunity to critically injure both the Japanese and the United States' economies, reliant on cheap oil, by creating a strong united Arab entity that could command these prices.
In-game, should the Yemeni Arab Democratic Republic defeat the Kingdom of Yemen, it will rename to the 'Arabian Republic' and proceed to declare war on Saudi Arabia. It is necessary that pan-Arab Yemen win both of these wars in order to facilitate a maximum-size United Arab Republic.
Omani Civil War and Dhofar Rebellion
Main article: Omani Civil War
Instead of remaining localized, the instability in Yemen would spill over to its neighbors. Frightened by the Yemeni revolution and the ramifications of it succeeding, Saudi-backed insurgents would begin a civil war against the Sultanate of Muscat and Oman under the banner of the Imamate of Oman, with the aim of creating a theocratic monarchist state. While it was initially hoped that this would not pre-empt further conflict in Oman, shortly thereafter, the Dhofar Rebellion would also occur. The Dhofar Rebellion would see the establishment of a movement to bring Marxism, initially just to the province of Dhofar in southwestern Oman, but soon after expanding to all of Oman and joining the blanket pan-Arab movement.
Once again, the Greater German Reich would back their sworn communist enemy in the aim of undermining the grip of the United States and Japan on the Middle East, although the Führer would attempt to keep this involvement rather secretive.
Egyptian, Sudanese, and Ananian Civil Wars
Main Article(s): Egyptian Civil War, Sudanese Civil War, South Sudanese Civil War
If the conflict had remained localized to South Arabia, it would likely not even be worth historically mentioning. However, the emergence of instability in Egypt, the largest Arab nation would escalate the conflict into something of historically legendary proportions.
Collapse of Italian Egypt and Egyptian Civil War
Since the end of the North Africa Campaign, the Kingdom of Egypt had been a client state of the Italian Empire. Cracks, however, had consistently existed in this client relationship since the very beginning. Pressure would begin building around 1965 with the death of Farouk I, but it was thanks to Italian hegemony - driven by requirement to access East Africa via the Suez Canal or railroad through Sudan - and control that Egypt had stayed together. Despite this, the arrangement between Egypt and Sudan, already a somewhat tenuous relationship, and the difference between the Arab north and the tribal African south of Sudan had made affairs an administrative nightmare for an extraordinarily long time. This would ultimately cause political strife, already intense prior to 1965, to begin to rise closer to the boiling point throughout most of the later 60s.
Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser would see the Dhofar and Yemeni rebellions as a sign to strike, supposing that Italian resources were already being diverted to restoring order in Arabia, and would promptly denounce the central Egyptian government as an illegitimate puppet regime. Along with him, Nasser would take a not-insignificant portion of the Egyptian army as he launched his rebellion against the Egyptian regime. Following this, the Free Officers would launch an insurgency in western Egypt, declaring the temporary Egyptian Revolutionary Command Council to oversee the execution of the movement. While initially, the Muslim Brotherhood would agree to fight with the Egyptian central government against the Free Officers, miscommunications and failed negotiations would lead to the Muslim Brotherhood beginning a rebellion of their own in Eastern Egypt with the intent of creating a fundamentally Islamic state.
Now aiming to also undermine the Italian position as a potential world power, the German Reich would fund and back the Free Officers, while the United States would back the Egyptian central government with the intent of stabilizing Italy's economy and ENI if Italy and its subjects are in the OFN alliance. Hoping radicalism would create terror and thus cheaper oil prices, the Japanese government would back the Muslim Brotherhood.
Sudanese Secession and Civil War
As the situation in Egypt continued to degrade, Sudan would break away, with governor-general of Sudan Ismail al-Azhari, declaring that Sudan had no interest in fighting an Egyptian war. However, the Free Officers movement had significant influence among the Sudanese Armed Forces as well, and shortly after, the Sudanese Free Officers' movement would rebel, backed by Greater German Reich.
With it becoming rapidly becoming clear that Sudan would not be spared from the violence, the Judiciary of Sudan and a portion of the military under General Ibrahim Abboud would secede from the Republic, seeking backing from the Japanese to secure Sudan's position against Ba'athist and the government forces.
Considering Port Sudan's position in the middle of the Red Sea, and just after the Suez Canal, control over it would be vital to ensuring the security of the Suez; thus, all three major parties were interested in it as an insurance policy in the event that the Egyptian civil war did not go as hoped by the parties involving themselves.
South Sudanese Conflict
The collapse of the Sudanese government had an unexpected consequence for South Sudan, a region populated not by Arabs, but by at least 60 ethnic groups more closely related to sub-Saharan Africans. South Sudan would proclaim its independence shortly after the Sudanese state fell into chaos, but just as quickly as the Republic could be declared, the Anyanya militias and the Azania Liberation Front would fall into conflict with one another. With few interests in the region, the conflict will likely be spared of much foreign intervention, and combined with low-level insurgencies, could last well into the 1980s.
Iraqi Civil War
Main Article: Iraqi Civil War
The chaos spreading around the Middle East rocked Iraq, but the country likely could have survived, were it not for the sudden death of Abd al-Karim Qasim, president of the Iraqi Republic. Following his death, and long with the plentiful and rich wells in the region, the country would erupt in flames in late 1971, with Ba'athist, Islamic, Government, and Democratic forces all immediately beginning combat with each other. The Kurds, however, will also fight against Iraqi contenders in order to preserve their independence if Iraq takes control of Northern Iraq during the Second Italo-Turkish War.
The collapse of the Iraqi government is widely considered to be the turning point in the crisis, and from where newspapers dropped the term 'Oil Wars' to refer to the conflict and began using the term 'Oil Crisis', as from here it truly became a global issue.
Effects
Collapse of ENI
Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi (ENI) was the most dominant firm in Italy and was considered to be one of the pillars of the Italian economy. Middle Eastern Oil extracted, barreled, refined and sold by ENI made up a significant portion of Italy's revenues, and while economists in Italy had warned of this for an extraordinarily long time, the Italian government had refused to listen.
After the Iraqi Civil War, however, the majority of ENI wells outside of Libya were forced to cease and restart production as possible with the ongoing conflict. As a result, ENI was forced to spike prices when oil was low, and then lower it when shipments arrived out of the active warzone. As a result of this, oil prices worldwide underwent several rapid, massive fluctuations.
As ENI was backed in a significant capacity by the Italian government, the company did not go bankrupt despite the price fluctuations and an estimated stock price drop of about 81% from $135.29 USD a share to $25.73 USD per share within 48 hours of the Iraqi conflict commencing. However, it reported record losses and continued to bleed funding from the Italian government, causing a major fiscal crisis within Italy. Globally, the perceived overnight collapse of ENI led to nearly every single nation in the world suffering major economic losses. Guangdong, for instance, saw anarchic riots consume practically the entire country.
In-game, the Oil Crisis debuff is applied to every nation except for Russian unifiers. With the exception of the Republic of China and the Iberian Union, it is impossible to remove this debuff except with console commands.
If Albert Speer is chosen as Hitler's successor, then the Frankfurt stock exchange will suffer a similar collapse, leading to pronounced political turmoil in the Reich and ultimately the Slave Revolt.
Superevent
The Oil Crisis Superevent occurs after the collapse of ENI, which is shortly after the start of the Iraqi civil war. The song used in the event is the opening of Sout El Gamaher, a pan-Arabic patriotic anthem praising the "voice of the masses".
Trivia
- The Oil Crisis is based on the real-life OPEC oil spikes in 1973. Its consequences in the TNO universe are much more devastating economically, affecting every country, from small middle-of-nowhere African non-entity warlords to the global superpowers.